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It is all too clear that current actions from this second Trump presidency have brought much greater stress and disorder to the current global order. The stresses are apparent and the ties that bind the allies are being tested, examined and re-examined, all sans the United States.
We need to look at this but first let’s have a quick look at what we mean by the current global order and the critical American role that the former largely benign hegemon played and is now playing. A recent helpful snapshot is provided by Leslie Vinjamuri, the former director of US and the Americas Programme and the current President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Senem Aydın-Düzgit a professor of International Relations, at Sabancı University in Turkey. The two took the lead in a recent Chatham House production, “Competing Visions of international order: responses to US power in a fracturing world”. At Chapter One, “The fracturing of the US-led liberal international order”, Vinjamuri summarized – I think succinctly and well, the changing shape of the order and the state behavior of a number of significant players of the evolving order:
“The US was once the primary architect of the liberal international order. That order was defined by three principles shared among its members: a commitment to democracy and the rule of law; a commitment to open trade; and a commitment to institutionalized multilateralism as the main form of cooperation.”
“Today, the US seeks to adapt, disrupt and, in some cases, reject outright the most essential tenets of the very system it helped to forge from the ashes of the Second World War. The 2024 election of Donald Trump has returned to the White House a leader whose rhetorical disregard for the sovereignty of other states is on full display, along with his disdain for multilateralism.”
The reactions are evident. We have chronicled, as have many others, the efforts of Canada’s Mark Carney to rebalance Canada’s relationships and to diversify Canada’s trade from the United States.
Colleague Dan Drezner at Drezner’s World, in a Post titled, ‘Worthwhile Canadian Initiative?’ did just that. He reviewed recent Carney actions and statements. Though Carney, it has become clear is unprepared to become an associate member of the European Union, though it is mentioned here, Carney does, as described by Dan, seem to be prepared to become a member of an ‘Alliance for the Future’ and to strengthen and diversify Canada’s economic and political relations, which paradoxically may improve relations with the US. As Dan wrote:
“Carney has responded to the Trump administration’s coercive efforts by attempting to further enhance Canada’s strategic and economic resilience. He has encouraged Europe to join him in resisting Trump — and Europe, in turn, has invited Canada to be an associate member of the European Union and agreed to fashion a payments system independent of the United States. He quickly organized the Canada Investment Summit and secured pledges of $500 billion in new investment.” …
“In his interview with the NYT, Carney “made the case, too, that in many ways, what’s good for Canada is also good for the United States because of their decades-long integration that has created stability and prosperity.””
“Paradoxically, if Carney succeeds in bolstering Canada’s economic resilience, it might improve the bilateral relationship with the United States. A less insecure Canada would be a better partner — and a more resilient Canada would also constrain the United States from bullying its neighbor to the north.”
“The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World does not know if Carney’s resiliency initiative will work. But it is indeed a worthwhile initiative.””
Carney indeed seems to be committed to enhancement and diversification of Canada’s global economic relations. Notice his recent announcement of a priority pipeline to the British Columbia coast as described in the Toronto Star by Alex Ballingall and Ryan Tumilty
“Prime Minister Mark Carney will use contentious powers his
government created to fast-track a major new oil pipeline to the West Coast,
driving forth the publicly financed project that faces stiff resistance from
environmentalists and Indigenous groups and deepens his co-operation with the
Alberta government just weeks ahead of the province’s separation-themed
referendum.”“Announcing the decision flanked by oilsands workers in Fort McMurray, Alta., Carney touted the newly branded “Pacific Link” pipeline project as an economic boon that will rake billions of dollars into federal coffers and create 140,000 jobs during construction. Government officials briefing journalists Thursday said permits needed for the new pipeline are now deemed to be approved, and the question is now how — not whether — the project will be constructed. The goal is to produce a “conditions” document that allows construction to begin by Sept. 1, 2027, and oil to flow by 2032 or 2033.”
“The 1,250-kilometre pipeline would carry one million barrels of oil a day. Its proposed route follows a similar path to the existing Trans Mountain pipeline system from Alberta to B.C.‘s Lower Mainland before diverting to the Roberts Bank Terminal in Delta, B.C. “
“The prime minister framed the pipeline as a strategic necessity that will position Canada to feed global demand for fossil fuels in the decades to come.”
And as noted above he appears to be committed to an enhanced relationship with Europe as well. This is described in the Globe and Mail by Steven Chase:
“Canada and the European Union plan to link next-generation payment
systems to enable faster cross-border transactions, according to a draft joint
statement prepared for a summit between Ottawa and Brussels later this month.”“The draft statement doesn’t detail what next-generation payment systems include, but this term has been used by others to refer to a major upgrade of a country’s core payment infrastructure, usually built around real-time payments.” …
“Both have identified the United States’s sway over the current generation of payment systems as a risk, given that Washington has grown increasingly unpredictable and protectionist under President Donald Trump.”
And it appears that the EU and Canada are now seriously planning for a summit for the end of October. What will be agreed upon, well that not clear but Chase notes some possible agreements:
“The draft statement shows that Canada and the EU plan to announce that they’ve completed a Digital Trade Agreement “to allow for faster, lower-cost secure digital trade and transactions” and that they plan deeper co-operation on critical minerals.”
Tonda MacCharles at the Toronto Star identifies some additional possible Canada-EU commitments that may result from this, or I suspect future summits:
“It says the two leaders are preparing to announce a stronger “partnership” and it charts deeper Canada-EU co-operation on defence, on artificial intelligence — including a new Digital Trade Agreement — on energy, critical minerals, vaccines and space-based communications — all areas where Canada has historically integrated efforts with the U.S. but areas where Carney has specifically identified strategic vulnerabilities for Canada. “
“The proposed Canada-EU statement pledges to “identify commitments for export of Canadian critical minerals to Europe” and eyeballs the “stockpiling of critical resources to insulate from market fluctuations and geopolitical impacts.””
“The joint Canada-EU list of strategic sectors specifies energy, critical minerals and supply chains, semiconductors, vaccines, and space-based communications “where shared resilience is becoming an imperative.””
“It pledges more defence co-operation, including support for Ukraine and the defence of Arctic sovereignty, as well as stronger co-operation on crisis response, sanctions, defence industrialization and countering hybrid threats — all areas where the U.S. is unquestionably a pivotal player.”
“It promises stronger financial-market integration, greater co-operation on cybersecurity, closer foreign-policy alignment and joint promotion of multilateralism in pursuit of greater stability in the Indo-Pacific, as well as de-escalation and humanitarian support in the Middle East — areas where the U.S. under President Donald Trump has been setting his own course.”
Will all this come to fruition well, maybe, but probably not. But it is evident that the US-Canada frictions and trade conflict have encouraged a rethink on relations – economic for sure but also defense and security. These enhancements will not be easy to conclude, and, more importantly, to implement. But those commitments that in fact are implemented will, I suspect, have an important impact on the global order. All this will have to be followed closely and the Trump administration reactions as well.
